This picture causes more anxiety than expected

The 2019 election has begun. The stage sentence in front of the legislative deal for the crowning of HD Kumaraswamy in Bangalore has been made from there that (except a few) all the opposition will stand against Modi this time. The politics of the country has once again completed the round and stood at the same crossroads where in the past, it had come and stumbled on multiple occasions.

The first story of the entire opposition becoming united when one person or party became the ultimate power was seen against Indira Gandhi after the Emergency when right wing, socialists fought all together and formed a government under Morarji Desai. The second opportunity came in 1989 when right-wing, left-wing, socialists were beating in a single swing against Rajiv Gandhi’s government with 419 MPs. This time also he formed the government.

Coin Has Two Sides

But there is also the other side of both these sentences, and that is more important. The non-Congress government formed after the Emergency died in two years, VP Singh, who rose to power on the back of corruption in 1989, resigned in 11 months and was out of power.

The scene which was decorated on stage outside the Vidhan Soudha in Bangalore on Wednesday may be the reason for the initial enthusiasm and enthusiasm, but the practicality of politics demands much more than this. For example, the last two governments mentioned above fell prey to their contradictions, their ambitions, their personal jealousies, and this fall they did not even care about public expectations. Therefore, the challenge before the leaders present in this picture is not just to prove electoral defeat and victory but also to prove history wrong.

This is the crooked truth of our politics, leaders chant the name of the public before the election and after the election they adopt all kinds of tricks in which their personal interest, family’s interest, party’s interest, money interest is at the top, the end People are talked about.

A platform on which leaders like Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, Sharad Pawar, Arvind Kejriwal, Chandrababu Naidu, Omar Abdullah, Sitaram Yechury, Pinnarayi Vijayan are definitely present in the current troubled democracy. Might be the ideal picture.

When people’s feelings are being made violent in the name of cow, cow dung, when citizenship laws are being discriminated against, when the credibility of institutions is at the lowest level, when the reasons for which India was an attack on the same basic idea If then, such pictures give confidence. But the rest of the elements that uphold this trust, that political pragmatism, the need to put ourselves one step behind, the feeling of giving up one’s personal cravings in any of these? There is a solution to many problems in this one question.

If the two governments reached the same speed in the past, then the people of India will not be surprised if it is used to it, it has become accustomed to it, it will move silently after another cheat. There are some genuine reasons for this concern, which will be easy for you to understand on the basis of mutual relations between some figures, leaders and parties.

Some extraordinary performances are expected from the leaders on the stage of Bengaluru, against the challenge that Narendra Modi is going to celebrate the fourth anniversary of his tenure in such a short time, the threat posed by the country’s constitution and democracy. , Personal renunciation tops it.

This is an interesting coincidence. HD Deve Gowda, the Congress party with which he became Prime Minister in 1996, moved the land from under his feet in seven months. It was the United Front government. This whole period was of coalition politics. Deve Gowda always showed his bitterness towards the Congress after this, but today he was present on the stage as a grand father during the coronation of son Kumaraswamy with the support of the same Congress. He also greeted every visiting guest personally. However, this time the Congress party is in power. It is not the beginning of the Third Front but the rise of a big pole against the BJP and Narendra Modi.

However, manipulations of data go in favor of any such possible alliance. According to the picture, if the entire opposition stands together, then the BJP’s mission 2019 may be in danger. At present, there are 11 states where there are non-BJP governments. There are 13 main opposition parties that can gather to defeat Modi. These states have a total of 349 Lok Sabha seats. These figures are intimidating to the BJP. The question arises as to whether such a nationwide alliance will take shape? If taken, what will be the guarantee of its durability?

Let’s start with Karnataka. Finally, after swearing in, Kumaraswamy and DK Shivakumar shook hands and greeted the public. Both come from the Vokkaliga community. Both are in different parties, the past of both has been very confrontational and bitter. Shivkumar is the architect of the unity of Congress MLAs. He himself aspires for the post of Chief Minister. At the moment he has not even been made Deputy Chief Minister. In this case, how long their wishes will suppress their displeasure, it will be a matter to be seen.

Statistics and apprehensions

BJP, which remained away from power in spite of all efforts in Karnataka, is currently ruling 64 percent of India’s population. This also means that the remaining 13 parties (including small local parties) currently represent 36% of the country’s population.

View of the nation yesterday in front of the Legislative Deal in Bangalore and

It is trying to increase the scope of its 36 percent rule in the 2019 elections. It is evident that the fall of the BJP government in Karnataka and the formation of the Congress-JDS government has strengthened that opposition.

The biggest concern on this occasion is that this unity will remain until the 2019 elections. There is doubt about this. The Chief Minister of Telangana is a supporter of the Third Front. On the other hand, the leaders of SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh have already started indicating that they will not have any alliance with the Congress. At most two families can leave Amethi and Rae Bareli.

Arvind Kejriwal was also with Sonia-Rahul on the Bangalore stage. In Punjab and Delhi, both parties are strongly opposed to each other. Arvind Kejriwal defeated the Congress by defeating Sheila Dixit. The same situation is in Punjab where AAP is the main opposition party as compared to Congress. In such a situation, how will their relationship take place in a nationwide alliance of 13 parties.

Nitish Kumar is still an important leader in Bihar. In 2014, the BJP won 31 out of 40 seats without his support. Now after joining with Nitish Kumar, BJP and NDA have got more strength. In such a situation, what will be the future of RJD-Congress alliance.

Maharashtra too is in a similar vexation. Despite the NCP-Congress alliance in 2014, the NDA won 42 out of 48 seats. Now, however, Shiv Sena has announced to fight separately from BJP. But it is also true that Shiv Sena fought separately in the assembly elections, yet BJP became the largest party.

Even in Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress and the National Conference could not challenge the BJP by staying together. In Jharkhand too, JMM and Babulal Marandi’s party will be in front of BJP. In West Bengal, BJP still has a long way to go. Here is the unbroken rule of Mamta Banerjee. But the BJP is growing fast here. Modi has brought Mukul Roy with him. At present, BJP has only 2 of the 42 seats in Bengal. The BJP has become a big challenge for the ruling Biju Janata Dal in Orissa.

There are 42 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. With the separation of TDP and TRS here, BJP’s expectations have worsened. The BJP’s hope here rests on the YSR Congress. If the Congress and the TRS fight separately in Telangana, the BJP can get some benefit. BJP’s expectations in Kerala and Tamil Nadu are already slim.